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Watchlist - Traders method
09-08-2013, 06:38 PM (This post was last modified: 09-09-2013 10:37 AM by isatrader.)
Post: #177
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

(09-08-2013 06:19 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote:  Was also tempted by Cocoa with it's nice "W" bottom formation but the higher near term resistance level did n't offer a good enough R2R. I think the nearest resistance level is just about blown through so may not be much of a hindrance.

It's cleared the weekly ichimuko cloud, so suggests the resistance is old enough to only be a technical level to watch.

NIB is an ETN to trade it on the US market, and at current levels would give around 3.5x ATR risk to stop loss, so a pullback entry might be a better option to get a better stop distance imo. I've also attached a 2% box size PnF chart with the price by volume on so you can see the strength of the resistance, which it's looks to have cleared the bulk of which came in below 33 on NIB.


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isatrader

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09-09-2013, 12:13 AM
Post: #178
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

(09-08-2013 06:04 PM)isatrader Wrote:  
(09-08-2013 05:57 PM)goodtyneguy Wrote:  Lean hogs and sugar broke out last Friday.

I still have Sugar in Stage 4B-, possibly 1A personally

I agree on the weekly chart and I know that in your experience you have found that some of the commodities act like stocks, IIRC it was some of the precious metals. However, looking at sugars "personality" do you not think it would be prudent to do stage analysis using the daily chart as Weinstein recommends on futures with the shorter cycles?
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09-09-2013, 10:00 AM (This post was last modified: 09-09-2013 10:39 AM by isatrader.)
Post: #179
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

(09-08-2013 06:04 PM)isatrader Wrote:  I still have Sugar in Stage 4B-, possibly 1A personally

(09-09-2013 12:13 AM)goodtyneguy Wrote:  I agree on the weekly chart and I know that in your experience you have found that some of the commodities act like stocks, IIRC it was some of the precious metals. However, looking at sugars "personality" do you not think it would be prudent to do stage analysis using the daily chart as Weinstein recommends on futures with the shorter cycles?

I've had a look back in Chapter 9 to refresh my memory on this one, and Weinstein does recommend a much more active approach with commodities futures, and to trade off of the daily chart with a 40 day MA instead of the usual setup, and so the Stage Analysis would be much more speeded up. However, doing a Stage Analysis on the daily Sugar chart only with a 40 day MA, and Relative Performance versus the Continuous Commodity Index ($CCI), I would still only class it as a daily Stage 1 / Stage 1B, as it's forming a Stage 1 head and shoulders pattern base currently and Relative Performance is still below the zero line and it's previous swing high, as well as price not clearing the top of the Stage 1 base yet. So on the spot price chart I'd suggest it needs to breakout above the 0.173 level that I've marked as the top of the Stage 1 range on the chart, to move into Stage 2A and complete the head and shoulders base. Which would give a swing target to 0.186.

Note: In the book that the orange juice example never touched the 40 day MA throughout it's Stage 2 advance (p333) and stayed well above it throughout. Whereas currently the recent swing low in Sugar is still below the 40 day MA.

Attached are the charts, and I've included the SGG daily and point and figure charts as that looks like the trading vehicle with most volume on the US market other than the futures contract. I've also dropped in the daily chart on the previous Cocoa post so that you can compare, as Cocoa is in Stage 2 on the daily chart.


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09-09-2013, 04:51 PM
Post: #180
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

MAKO is attempting to make it's first Stage 2 continuation move today, with a strong move above the recent swing high. This one has mentioned a number of times on the Watchlist - Investor method thread as it's in early Stage 2A. Attached is the charts.


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09-09-2013, 08:16 PM (This post was last modified: 09-09-2013 08:53 PM by goodtyneguy.)
Post: #181
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

(09-09-2013 10:00 AM)isatrader Wrote:  
(09-08-2013 06:04 PM)isatrader Wrote:  I still have Sugar in Stage 4B-, possibly 1A personally

(09-09-2013 12:13 AM)goodtyneguy Wrote:  I agree on the weekly chart and I know that in your experience you have found that some of the commodities act like stocks, IIRC it was some of the precious metals. However, looking at sugars "personality" do you not think it would be prudent to do stage analysis using the daily chart as Weinstein recommends on futures with the shorter cycles?

I've had a look back in Chapter 9 to refresh my memory on this one, and Weinstein does recommend a much more active approach with commodities futures, and to trade off of the daily chart with a 40 day MA instead of the usual setup, and so the Stage Analysis would be much more speeded up. However, doing a Stage Analysis on the daily Sugar chart only with a 40 day MA, and Relative Performance versus the Continuous Commodity Index ($CCI), I would still only class it as a daily Stage 1 / Stage 1B, as it's forming a Stage 1 head and shoulders pattern base currently and Relative Performance is still below the zero line and it's previous swing high, as well as price not clearing the top of the Stage 1 base yet. So on the spot price chart I'd suggest it needs to breakout above the 0.173 level that I've marked as the top of the Stage 1 range on the chart, to move into Stage 2A and complete the head and shoulders base. Which would give a swing target to 0.186.

Note: In the book that the orange juice example never touched the 40 day MA throughout it's Stage 2 advance (p333) and stayed well above it throughout. Whereas currently the recent swing low in Sugar is still below the 40 day MA.

Attached are the charts, and I've included the SGG daily and point and figure charts as that looks like the trading vehicle with most volume on the US market other than the futures contract. I've also dropped in the daily chart on the previous Cocoa post so that you can compare, as Cocoa is in Stage 2 on the daily chart.

Right, good well reasoned and presented argument, so I was a bit premature on the stage 2A call. I started to accumulate as an investor (honestly) when it first broke above 17.08, so it was in stage 1 then. What give me confidence was going back five years or so, every time a swing high which closed above a flattened 40 dma was exceeded, the last swing low before this event marked a bottom. Another thing I was mindful of is that if turned on a sixpence and accelerated higher like it has done on a few occasions in the past I would not have been able to get in unless I had buy stop in place. Something interested traders should pay attention too in my opinion. OK, that's it, I think I've now validated having took a position in sugar. Smile Thanks for the in depth analysis isatrader for both this and cocoa, a good learning experience for all imo.
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09-09-2013, 11:08 PM
Post: #182
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

IDIX looks like it peeked above resistance today. Not much volume to speak of yet. I am considering a buy stop at 5.51. Only problem is setting an initial sell stop so will need to go with the 4-6% rule.

   
   
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09-10-2013, 01:32 AM (This post was last modified: 09-10-2013 01:36 AM by isatrader.)
Post: #183
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

Here are three UK stocks making Stage 2 continuation moves that are in strong Stage 2 advances currently with good relative performance and rising cumulative volume - VOD.L, MKS.L and IAP.L

All have good dividend yields with VOD.L at 4.84%, MKS.L at 3.40% and IAP.L at 5.27% yield.


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09-10-2013, 03:40 PM
Post: #184
RE: Watchlist - Traders method

A couple of today's early potential Stage 2 continuation moves ACLS and DAL which both had strong volume yesterday.


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