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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
02-25-2013, 12:07 AM (This post was last modified: 01-23-2014 01:08 AM by isatrader.)
Post: #1
Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

Welcome to the Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis Discussion Thread. I've been running this thread on another forum since September 2011 here: http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technica...lysis.html, but it's become too big to manage in a single thread. So I've created this forum for it, so that the charts can be organised in a logical way, which will make it easier for everyone to find what they are interested in.

The previous thread has over a year and half of posts, detailed discussions, interviews, examples etc, and so is an excellent starting point for anyone wanting to learn Stan Weinstein's method, but I hope to take it to the next level on here.

If you are viewing this as a guest then I'd recommend taking a minute to register as a member on here - which is free of charge, and will give you access to all main boards and the ability to post in this thread, as only members are allowed to contribute to the site.

Anyway, I hope you enjoy the thread.

Definitions of the Stages and Sub-stages

Stage 1A Start of a base. Needs much more time.
Stage 1 Basing Phase. May begin accumulation.
Stage 1B Late in base-building phase. Watch for breakout.

Stage 2A Early in uptrend stage. Ideal time to buy aggressively.
Stage 2 Advancing Stage.
Stage 2B Getting late in uptrend.

Stage 3A Looks as if a top is starting to form. Be sure to protect holdings with a close stop.
Stage 3 The Top Area. Start to reduce positions.
Stage 3B Has become increasingly toppy. Use rallies for at least partial selling.

Stage 4A Stock has entered Downtrend Stage. Close out remaining positions.
Stage 4 The Declining Stage. Avoid on the long side.
Stage 4B Late in downtrend. Much too soon to consider buying.
Stage 4B- Although not yet “officially” in Stage 1A, stock has now seen its low for the cycle.

Additional ratings
(A) Early in that Stage.
(B) Late in that Stage.
(+) Outstanding pattern in that Stage.
(–) Unexciting pattern in that Stage.

   

Interviews

Audio interviews with Stan Weinstein
Stan Weinstein | FINANCIAL SENSE

Video Interview from the day of the 1987 Stock Market crash
Black Monday - Part 2 - Nightly Business Report Oct.19, 1987 - YouTube


Reading

Global Trend Alert example - March 2005
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technica...ost1675626

Extract from Stan Weinstein's interview in the "Technically Speaking" book
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technica...ost2037672


Miscellaneous

How to create the Mansfield Relative Strength Indicator
http://stageanalysis.net/reference/how-t...icator/558

Buying Reference
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/technica...ost1692514

Point and Figure Charts - Free resources to help learn P&F charting
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?i...pnf_charts
http://data.dorseywright.com/cgi-bin/fox...index.html



Major Charts Update - week ending 22nd February 2013

Attached is the updated major charts and the relative performance table. The FTSE 100 holds onto the top spot for another week, while the DAX moves back to second place. The notable mover this week in the table was the Dollar Index (DX) which moved up two places to 8th. The Dollar Index made a closing breakout above the 200 day MA, but didn't close the week above the November high however. The 30 week weighted MA turned up, bu the 30 week SMA is still declining, and so if it breakouts here it wouldn't be considered a valid Stage 2 entry point until the 30 week MA stabilised. It has however, been a big driving force behind the commodity declines this week along with the Chinese market ($SSEC) pullback, which particularly affected Copper and the Base Materials sector.

Treasuries also had a strong week and closed around the top of the one month range and above their reasonably steep downtrend lines, but are still well below declining 30 week MAs.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=39]


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isatrader

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02-25-2013, 07:00 PM (This post was last modified: 02-25-2013 07:00 PM by isatrader.)
Post: #2
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread

Attached is the the weekly and daily charts of the major sectors and below is the relative performance table in order of strength. Notable changes this week were the crosses above and below the zero line for Consumer Staples (XLP) and Basic Materials (XLB) and the move off the bottom stop for Utilities (XLU). Health Care (XLV) also moved up and so the three defensive sectors showed the best relative performance which is unsurprising considering the volatile week in the US market.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=42]


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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03-02-2013, 11:26 PM (This post was last modified: 03-02-2013 11:28 PM by isatrader.)
Post: #3
Major Charts Update

Attached is the updated major charts and the relative performance table. I will split the post across multiple posts to avoid the page getting too heavy as there's already a lot of charts on the first two posts.

Relative Performance Table - week ending 1st March 2013

[Image: attachment.php?aid=136]


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isatrader

Fate does not always let you fix the tuition fee. She delivers the educational wallop and presents her own bill – Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.
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03-02-2013, 11:33 PM (This post was last modified: 03-04-2013 02:18 AM by isatrader.)
Post: #4
Major Stock Indexes Update

Attached is the updated stock index charts for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, NYSE Composite, Dow Jones Transportation Average, German Dax and the FTSE 100.

US Indexes

The S&P 500 continues in Stage 2 currently. However, I'm changing my rating to a Stage 2B- as it's consolidating above the recent breakout and the 50 day MA is starting to catch up. On the weekly chart the uptrend is still intact and although it's attempted to push lower in both of the last two weeks, both times it's been rejected and closed not far from the previous weeks close. So although the price action is toppy, it could yet continue on higher to challenge the 2007 highs. A cautious note however, is that the 30 week WMA momentum, which has risen every week since the start of the year fell last week. So we need to be selective and focus on trader method positions imo.

                   

European Indexes

       

isatrader

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03-02-2013, 11:45 PM (This post was last modified: 03-03-2013 01:34 AM by isatrader.)
Post: #5
Major Commodities Update, Dollar Index and the VIX

Attached is the updated major commodities charts. Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL), Brent Crude (BZ) and the Dollar Index (DX) which has strong inverse correlation with them, plus the Volatility Index (VIX) which is starting to show some life again, but is still bottom on the relative performance table currently.


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isatrader

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03-03-2013, 12:00 AM
Post: #6
US Treasuries

Attached is the updated charts for the US 10 Year Treasuries (TY) and the US 30 Year Treasuries (US). It was futures expiration week and when they switched over on Thursday there was a notable gap between the March and June contracts, which caused the the unadjusted chart to gap lower and recover slightly into the close of the week, whereas the continuous adjusted chart would have shown a strong up week. However, we look at the unadjusted data on here, as we want to trade the real levels of support and resistance and so the US Treasuries continue their Stage 4 downtrends for the time being. Below is the charts


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isatrader

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03-03-2013, 12:38 AM (This post was last modified: 03-04-2013 12:44 AM by isatrader.)
Post: #7
US Industry Sectors

Attached is the the weekly and daily charts of the major sectors and below is the relative performance table in order of strength. Notable changes this week was the cross back below the zero line for Consumer Staples (XLP) and Energy (XLE) also declined two places. Whereas on the stronger side of things Health Care moved up to third in the relative performance rankings.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=154]


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isatrader

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03-03-2013, 07:05 PM (This post was last modified: 03-03-2013 07:25 PM by isatrader.)
Post: #8
S&P 500 P&F Breakouts and Breakdowns

Attached is the lists of this weeks 22 breakouts and 21 breakdowns. So a very mixed week for the S&P 500 stocks, with the breakdowns finally starting to pickup as this has been very one sided for a while now.

These are P&F breakouts and breakdowns where it made a higher high or lower low than the previous column of Xs or Os. It shows the whole week, so some will have failed to close above/below the breakout/breakdown levels. But gives a starting point to scan to see if any good with regards to Weinstein's method.

Week ending 1st March 2013

Breakouts
[Image: attachment.php?aid=156]

Breakdowns
[Image: attachment.php?aid=157]


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isatrader

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