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Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis
12-29-2013, 06:25 PM (This post was last modified: 12-29-2013 06:27 PM by isatrader.)
Post: #313
Dow Jones US Sub Sectors Performance

As it's the end of 2013 I thought it would be interesting to look at the US Sub Sectors performance over a number of different time periods to see what has been the strongest and weakest sectors over the year and areas of strength and weakness coming through in the later part of the year for what might be the best areas to look at in early 2014.

One Month Performance

       

Three Month Performance

       

Six Month Performance

       

One Year Performance

       

To see the full list sectioned by major sector, with links through to individual stocks in each sector, go to: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/indust...ECTOR_SPDR

isatrader

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01-01-2014, 04:47 PM (This post was last modified: 01-01-2014 04:53 PM by Lplate.)
Post: #314
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

(06-30-2013 08:06 AM)Lplate Wrote:  
(04-01-2013 10:48 AM)Lplate Wrote:  [END OF MARCH 13] . . . that Europe and Germany are in a Stage 3, on the brink of a breakdown, that UK is a little better clinging to stage 2, that Asia ex-Japan is still in stage 2, probably held up by Japan holding still strongly in stage 2 . . .
For new fund investors, there are no apparent stage 2 breakouts, so the Weinstein bets seem to still be on the strong stage 2s for US and Japan.

(04-30-2013 07:31 AM)Lplate Wrote:  [END OF APRIL 13] . . . looking at the regions again, Asia-excl Japan (EPP) has a continuation b/o and I have shown Australia's (EWA) b/o separately. http://tinyurl.com/bo8xzw2 UK (EWU) also shows a continuation b/o.
The charts show daily, but weekly are similar.

(05-25-2013 10:42 AM)Lplate Wrote:  [END OF MAY 13] . . . Japan EWJ setback looks palatable to recatch sight of the 30-week MA,
but Australia EWA looks a breakdown of both support and of the 30-week MA, like Asia excluding Japan EPP.
Latin ILF and Bricks BKF are still sideways.
UK EWU and Europe FEZ have reversed a little at resistance, but still look OK,
but not as good as USA Russell IWF (nor Japan)
With only USA and Japan looking still in good weekly uptrends the global stockmarket strength is narrow.
UK and Europe will be the ones to watch for further retreat from the resistance level

I have changed this to 2-year graphs, to make the last few weeks clearer.
http://tinyurl.com/nhjuwqt
My last ipdate 5 weeks ago was following a big move downwards in mid May.
The regions looking weaker above, Japan, Europe and UK, Brics and Latin, indeed turned weaker, and so, with only USA IWM in stage 2, this year has been a "Sell in May" year.
This also suggests that any big weekly price move down, even when still in stage 2 or 3, means it is not enough to monitor just monthly but you need to monitor weekly at least.
Japan EWJ was in stage 2 just about, but is now in stage 3, though still holding above a rising 30 wk WMA.
Europe FEZ and UK EWU have now broken below a still rising 30 wk WMA, so holders should be selling. They are stage 3 at best and in a couple of weeks could be stage 4s. 2012 lows are approx 20% below here.
Brics BKL and Latin America ILF were sideways despite the big falls 6 weeks ago, but are now clearly stage 4s
Asia excl Japan EPP and Australia EWA proceed down in stage 4.

Looking over the regional charts again, http://tinyurl.com/nhjuwqt Europe and UK did indeed look like Sell in May but they both recovered, so these joined the US in a rising second half of 2013, and and Japan also continued up a bit more, though now has been in stage 3.(Japan's Stage 3 may prove to be a continuation.) The Brics BKF continued sideways, and Australia and Asia excl Japan both are in downtrends. Latin ILF is the clearest downtrend.
Weinstein analyis suggests to buying focus in US, Europe and UK. One pattern struck me though after looking at fund sector performances over the last 10 years: only Emerging Markets ever managed to produce 3 successive years of yearly gains. US, Europe and UK have now had two good years, so:
1 . a third year would be very unusual,
2. the uptrends may continue but be followed by a midyear fall,
3. keep an eye for a tunaround on recent sideways and downtrending regions.
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01-02-2014, 12:31 PM (This post was last modified: 01-02-2014 01:01 PM by isatrader.)
Post: #315
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

The key points that I learnt in 2013 about Stan Weinstein's method.

Volume is just as important today as it was back when Weinstein wrote the book. We had discussed on the old thread and earlier in the year whether volume was as important anymore due to indexing, ETFs and dark pools etc. But through the course of doing this site and the daily scans for breakouts and breakdowns etc I've come to realise that it's just as important today as it was back then, it's just only visible mostly the small caps that aren't distorted by the indexing etc.

The vast majority of Stage 2A breakouts occur when the relative performance is above the zero line or on the week it crosses it. However, if the four key components of the method aren't all present - i.e. price action breakout, 2x volume, relative performance above zero line, above or moving above long term resistance - then avoid.

The Relative Performance Zero Line (52 week moving average of the stock divided by the S&P 500) is a useful guide as to whether a Stage 2A breakout will be successful or not. The Mansfield RS flattened the zero line, but by viewing the unflattened MA you can get additional vital information as to whether it's too early for a stock to breakout or not successfully. As I've noticed through the hundreds of charts I look at daily that if the zero line is still declining sharply when the Stage 2A breakout occurs, that the stock will struggle to advance. It doesn't mean that it won't advance, but that the most successful Stage 2A breakouts occur when the zero line is either flattening or already moving higher.

Never to buy a breakout trading under heavy / any near term resistance. I define this using the weekly Ichimoku Cloud as I can instantly see the resistance then when scanning through the charts each day and filter out any setups that aren't ready and will need more time to work through the resistance first. Any that aren't ready can be put on a longer term watchlist that can be reviewed occasionally for if and when they are ready to clear resistance.

A+ setups occur regularly in the small/mid caps but are rare in the large cap stocks. So you should never compromise in the small and mid cap stocks - remember the excerpt about opportunity cost from the book.

Moving on to 2014 - the last year in the market was very strong by historical standards and a lot of traders will be patting themselves on the back for doing so well as so many stocks went up, and so it's easy to get complacent. But we never know whats going to happen next in the market, and with the US markets continuing in Stage 2B currently we need to continue to focus, especially on the quality of trades we now make, and also on the stocks already in our portfolios, as they are the best guide to whats really happening in the market imo, along with the market breadth data.

Good luck with your trading and investing in 2014, and please try to get involved with the Stage Analysis site if you use Stan Weinstein's method even if only in a small way.

Happy New Year Smile

isatrader

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01-04-2014, 05:41 PM
Post: #316
Major Stock Indexes Update

Attached is the updated major equity index charts and relative performance table.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=6330]

US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes

       


Attached File(s) Thumbnail(s)
   

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01-04-2014, 05:42 PM
Post: #317
Commodities Update and the Dollar Index

Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) and the Dollar Index (DX).


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01-04-2014, 05:43 PM
Post: #318
US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries

Attached is the updated US 10 & 30 Year Treasuries charts.


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isatrader

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01-04-2014, 05:48 PM
Post: #319
US Industry Sectors

Attached are the updated US Major Sector Charts and relative performance table.

[Image: attachment.php?aid=6339]


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isatrader

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01-04-2014, 05:54 PM
Post: #320
RE: Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis

Attached is the US Sub Sectors ordered by the weekly percentage change. To see the full list sectioned by major sector, with links through to individual stocks in each sector, go to: http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/indust...ECTOR_SPDR


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