Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis - Discussion Thread

[isatrader]

The 10 Year US Treasuries have finally closed below the horizontal support from the August 2012 low, after moving into Stage 4A at the beginning of this year. So the 10 Year US Treasuries are in a confirmed Stage 4 now imo, with relative performance continuing to weaken below it's Mansfield zero line. The 30 week MA is declining, and has been since mid December, and cumulative volume is on a sell signal and declining.

The initial swing target is 127.80 which would see it test the lower horizontal support from the late 2011 Stage 3 range. if that fails to hold then the next support would be at 125. Below is the marked up chart.

US 10 Year Treasuries (TY) chart

   

After grinding slowly lower for last nine weeks since the Stage 4 breakdown, the 30 Year Treasuries have made their first continuation move lower. Like the 10 Year Treasuries the 30 week MA is declining, and relative performance is continuing to weaken below it's zero line. And cumulative volume continues to decline also.

The swing target is still 136.69, which like the 10 Year Treasuries would see the 30 Year Treasuries test the bottom of the previous Stage 3 range. A break of which could see a potential move down to the next support at 131. Below is the marked up chart.

US 30 Year Treasuries (US) chart

   

US Treasuries have a largely inverse relationship with US Equities, and so these moves are very bullish for the stock market which also broke out this week to the upside, and hence gives some confirmation to these Stage 4 breakdowns in the Treasuries and vice versa in the stocks.

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated major equity charts and the relative performance table.

There were multiple continuation moves this week, with the S&P 500 making a notable continuation, which could propel it too it's 2007 high of 1576.09 - also notable on the S&P 500 chart is that it's now back over 5% above it's 30 week WMA, which is the strong bull zone (not part of the method - just a personal addition).

On the relative performance table the German Dax recaptured the top spot it held for most of the second half of last year and the 10 Year Treasuries moved lower as it confirmed it's Stage 4 breakdown as mentioned in the previous post.

Relative Performance Table - week ending 8th March 2013



US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes

       

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated major commodities charts, Gold (GC), Copper (HG), West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL) - which all tested support levels this week and held.

[isatrader]

And finally attached is the Dollar Index (DX) and the Volatility Index (VIX).

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated US Industry Sector charts and the relative performance table, which confirms a lot of what I was seeing in the S&P 500 breakouts every day this week, as Consumer Discretionary stocks featured heavily and hence it moved up two places in the table to second place.

Five of the nine sectors continued to make new highs, and all nine sectors are trading above their 30 week moving averages.

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated major equity index charts and the relative performance table for the major charts. It was a quiet week with the Crude Oil the only notable move in the relative performance table, moving up two places after continuing it's rebound from support.

Relative Performance Table - week ending 15th March 2013



US Stock Indexes

               

European Stock Indexes

       

[isatrader]

Attached is the updated major commodities and precious metals charts, Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Palladium (PA), Copper (HG) and West Texas Intermediate Crude (CL).

[isatrader]

Attached is the Dollar Index (DX) and the Volatility Index (VIX).